Desk 02 · Nevada regulatory & policy intelligence
Capitol & CCB
The Cannabis Compliance Board, the Legislature and local governments, with rule changes compared line by line and federal scheduling priced into Nevada books.
Filed to this desk
Reporting
No published reporting has been filed to this desk yet.
Mojave Quant Terminal · model desk
Desk instrument
Heuer analysis of competing hypotheses · Turing–Good weight of evidence
Why did a Las Vegas dispensary license change control?
ln P(Hᵢ|E)/P(Hⱼ|E) = ln P(Hᵢ)/P(Hⱼ) + Σk ln P(Ek|Hᵢ)/P(Ek|Hⱼ)
A hypothetical Clark County retail license files for a change of ownership 45 days after its senior lender's forbearance agreement lapses. What explains the transaction? This is a hypothetical teaching case; the likelihoods are editorial judgments, published so readers can argue with them.
| Evidence | State | H0 · Organic expansion | H1 · Tax/regulatory arbitrage | H2 · Loan-to-own | H3 · Stealth roll-up | Diagnostic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E1 A single senior lender holds a blanket UCC-1 lien on all licensed assetsNevada Secretary of State UCC search | I −6.2 dB | N −1.9 dB | N +4.6 dB | N +1.9 dB | 7.9 dB | |
| E2 The change-of-ownership filing follows the forbearance lapse by under 60 daysCCB agenda and transfer-of-interest filings | I −11.0 dB | N −3.3 dB | N +4.8 dB | N +3.8 dB | 12.3 dB | |
| E3 The buyer's affiliates already hold two or more Nevada licensesSecretary of State entity graph; CCB licensee list | · | · | · | · | 5.6 dB | |
| E4 The seller reported positive same-store sales in the prior two quartersSeller press release (exterior view) | N +0.7 dB | N +0.0 dB | N −0.5 dB | N −0.5 dB | Non-diagnostic | |
| E5 Buyer-affiliated entities sell hemp-derived THC-A outside the regulated channelBusiness license and retail survey | N +1.4 dB | I −9.4 dB | N +1.0 dB | N +0.3 dB | 9.5 dB | |
| E6 A state tax lien shows the seller's wholesale excise arrears exceed one quarter's liabilityNevada Department of Taxation lien records | · | · | · | · | 9.7 dB |
C = consistent (≥ +5 dB), I = inconsistent (≤ −5 dB), N = neutral, against the prior-weighted pool of the other hypotheses. Heuer's rule: rank hypotheses by their inconsistencies, not by their confirmations.
Posterior probability
Deciban readout vs. leader
- H0 · Organic expansion−16.4 dBDisfavored
- H1 · Tax/regulatory arbitrage−21.5 dBFalsified
- H2 · Loan-to-ownleaderLeading
- H3 · Stealth roll-up−2.2 dBViable
Disfavored at -10 dB (10:1), falsified at -20 dB (100:1) against the leading hypothesis.
Quant viewInspect the math & raw telemetry
Each evidence item carries P(E | H) for every hypothesis. A present item contributes ln P(E|H), an absent one ln(1 − P(E|H)), and an unknown one nothing. Contributions add, which is Turing and Good's sequential accumulation. One deciban = 10·log₁₀ of a likelihood ratio, the smallest change in belief Turing thought a person could perceive.
| P(E | H) | H0 | H1 | H2 | H3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prior | 0.40 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| E1 | 0.15 | 0.30 | 0.92 | 0.60 |
| E2 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.85 | 0.70 |
| E3 | 0.35 | 0.30 | 0.25 | 0.90 |
| E4 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| E5 | 0.10 | 0.90 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| E6 | 0.08 | 0.30 | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| Posterior | 0.0141 | 0.0043 | 0.6147 | 0.3668 |
| Inconsistency Σ⁻ | -17.2 | -14.6 | -0.5 | -0.5 |